Annual 'Let's look at the Lake Powell Snowpack' thread

[talltigeguy]

Right now, El Nino is not working so much magic. The snowpack is right at average. We need multiple above average years to get Lake Powell and Mead to full capacity.

My local area has gotten pounded and the drainage our water comes from is at 164% of normal, and Northern Utah is also getting a lot of snow. It just hasn't reached the Colorado River drainage yet.

[Thegerman618]

It's hitting Cali pretty good over the last month which is good and bad. Good because we get some much needed water relief but bad with all the damage from mud slides and such plus water doesn't flow up hill to Mead. But we do have some good snow in Mammoth and local mountains at least compared to previous years should help local Cali lakes fill a bit. I wonder what Feb-Apr will look like, I keep watching Utah snow pack but nothing super impressive like they have been expecting.

[gwhite94]

Most of the CO mountains are at about 107-110% of snow pack so far. This is good but not enough to make any real change to the lakes.

[Thegerman618]

Heard Colorado is getting hammered lately they were saying you could have snowboarding in July this year.

[boonecragun]

Based on glen canyon operations report- http://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/gcd.html...
The April to July 2016 water supply forecast for unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2016, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume will be 6.4 maf (89% of average based on the period 1981-2010). The projected water year 2016 inflow is 9.6 maf (89%). At this early point in the season, there is still significant uncertainty regarding this year’s water supply. The April-July forecast ranges from a minimum probable of 4.1 maf (57%) to a maximum probable of 9.9 maf (138%). There is a 10% chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10% chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast.

Based on the current forecast, the January 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2016 near 3,609 feet with approximately 12.7 maf in storage (52% capacity). Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2016 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. Projections of elevation and storage using the minimum and maximum probable inflow forecast, updated in January, are 3,587 feet (10.5 maf, 43% capacity) and 3,642 feet (16.3 maf, 67% capacity), respectively. Under these scenarios, there is a 10 percent chance that inflows will be higher, resulting in higher elevation and storage, and 10 percent chance that inflows will be lower, potentially in lower elevation and storage. The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2016 is projected to be 9.0 maf under the minimum, most, and maximum probable inflow scenarios. There is a chance that inflows could be higher or lower, potentially resulting in releases greater than 9.0 maf or as low as 8.23 maf in water year 2016. The minimum and maximum probable scenarios will be updated again in April.

Would like to see 2012 levels at least. Anyone know what happened to meads water data site? No updates on water level since July.

[Adair9]

Also think the by pass will be as deep as the DAM.



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[talltigeguy]

Snowpack is currently at 161% of average.

Snow, baby, snow!!!!

They are currently running the Colorado below the dam at 14000 CFS, which should allow Mead to raise a fair amount. Lake Mead is above where it was last year at this time, which doesn't say much, but at least it isn't getting lower and lower. http://graphs.water-data.com/lakemead/ They may boost that if this wet winter continues.

Remember max snowpack comes about April 15, so can't quite draw too many conclusions. A dry February and March could kill it all, but so far it looks like the reserviors will get some good runoff.

http://lakepowell.water-data.com/

[Thegerman618]

Checking mead levels daily, super happy to see all the snow!

[talltigeguy]

The max snowpack occurs about April 15.

After a dismal November and December, one of the dryest on record, late storms have brought the snowpack to 82% of normal. That means that Lake Powell and Mead will be lower than they were last year. At least there will be some runoff, but not the back to back years that we need to get these lakes to anywhere near capacity.

Some of what happens to each lake depends on how they decide to share the water...sometimes Mead goes down and Powell stays the same and vice versa.

And while the Colorado River is already over allocated compared to what it actually produces, my county is planning a 2 billion dollar pipeline to bring water 150 miles to St. George Utah.

http://lpputah.org/

And here is a more realistic read if you are bored: http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-...htmlstory.html

[freeheel4life]

The max snowpack occurs about April 15.

After a dismal November and December, one of the dryest on record, late storms have brought the snowpack to 82% of normal. That means that Lake Powell and Mead will be lower than they were last year. At least there will be some runoff, but not the back to back years that we need to get these lakes to anywhere near capacity.

Some of what happens to each lake depends on how they decide to share the water...sometimes Mead goes down and Powell stays the same and vice versa.

And while the Colorado River is already over allocated compared to what it actually produces, my county is planning a 2 billion dollar pipeline to bring water 150 miles to St. George Utah.

http://lpputah.org/

And here is a more realistic read if you are bored: http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-...htmlstory.html

I bet ol Edward Abbey is rolling in his grave. Gotta water those golf courses though.

[talltigeguy]

Snowpack right now is at 132% of average and it usually goes down from here on out.

2 years ago had very similar snowpack and Lake Powell went up 40 feet. Downside is that Lake Powell is currently over 40 feet lower than it was at this time last year. They let a fair amount of water go downstream and mead is up 12 feet this winter, which is a pretty big bump for Mead.

Given that 2 of the last 3 years have been above average, there has been some progress, but need several more years like this one to get the lakes where they need to be.

[UNSTUCK]

Did I misunderstand it or is the plan to focus on filling Mead and keeping it full? I believe they said Mead is granite based which will not absorb water. Powell is sandstone based and loses a ton of water just from that absorption.

Anyways, KSL puts the averages up a bit from what you posted.

https://www.ksl.com/?nid=978

On top of that, my ski resort got another 14" overnight for a total of over 30" this week. They are expecting another big 3 day storm next week! Right now they are 122" over their average.

Forecasters are predicting a cool, wet April going into May. This is great news for the run off. We want a long slow run off.

[talltigeguy]

Did I misunderstand it or is the plan to focus on filling Mead and keeping it full? I believe they said Mead is granite based which will not absorb water. Powell is sandstone based and loses a ton of water just from that absorption.

Anyways, KSL puts the averages up a bit from what you posted.

https://www.ksl.com/?nid=978

On top of that, my ski resort got another 14" overnight for a total of over 30" this week. They are expecting another big 3 day storm next week! Right now they are 122" over their average.

Forecasters are predicting a cool, wet April going into May. This is great news for the run off. We want a long slow run off.

I do not know what their plan is. It does seem to make more sense to fill Mead more, and it is good to hear that they are considering it.

The link you referenced is the Utah snowpack. Most of the water in Lake powell actually comes from Colorado and a bunch from Wyoming. Those other areas have not gotten blasted like much of Utah has this winter, although they are above average.

I like this website. There is all sorts of stuff to geek out over. http://lakepowell.water-data.com/
Buried somewhere in a government website is a plan for what to do with the runoff this year. It would be a pretty good year to run the grand canyon. One of the best vacations my wife and I have ever taken.

[UNSTUCK]

I guess it just depends what report you want to follow. I also read where it doesn't even matter how much snow we get. The ground is so dry it will absorb most of the run off leaving very little to actually enter the rivers.

[sandm]

filling mead just gives california the green light to stop conserving water since they own more water shares than nevada/arizona combined.