The Economy

[Bandsecurity]

My company (work for not own) just had it's best year ever. We are a roofing and insulation contractor. Most of our growth was related to commercial construction which is still strong in the west. We just bought a garage door and fire place installation company. It has not faired well so far as it's focus is primarily in the residential market. We think in 12 to 24 months we should be able to double our sales as the residential maket should be stable or growing.

I feel terrible for the people that have lost their homes and/or jobs as a result of the recent financial recession. I have been on this end of a cycle before. However, there was so many things that were screwed up that the market needed a correction. Unfortunately, innocent people have been hurt.

I think the good news is that there are some great opportunities out there. Even a little capital should put you back in the game in two to three years.

[illiniboarder88]

We'll bounce back, and I hope it's sooner rather than later. That being said, we do have some serious issues to address. Three particular ones come to mind for me. 1. Banking regulations. Those regs were put in place for a reason. We have now set up a situation where Citi, Chase, and Bank of America are backed by the Treasury. They have been deemed too big to fail. They bet big, won big, then lost big, but are now able to hand off big chunks of their losses to the rest of us. 2. Energy Dependence. 3. A loss of solid paying manufacturing jobs. It's hard for us to compete with foreign labor. As such, we'll continue to see jobs leaving. The legitimate problem is replacing these jobs. Our middle class has been a huge part of our economy and has helped with social stability. We all compound the problem because we want things to be cheap. American consumers would rather buy the cheaply made Chinese product at Walmart for $2 less than the same product made in America. I'm guilty of this at times as well. I'm interested to see how the auto industry mess plays out. The current state of the mess is the fault of both labor and management. Labor contracts are killing the industry, and management was stupid enough to enter into those contracts. They then continued to bet the farm on big SUV's. We'll see how this plays out, but I also believe the industry is exagerating the state of its condition in hopes of taking advantage of the current govt. handouts.

[dogbert]

3. A loss of solid paying manufacturing jobs. It's hard for us to compete with foreign labor. As such, we'll continue to see jobs leaving. The legitimate problem is replacing these jobs. Our middle class has been a huge part of our economy and has helped with social stability. We all compound the problem because we want things to be cheap. American consumers would rather buy the cheaply made Chinese product at Walmart for $2 less than the same product made in America. I'm guilty of this at times as well. I'm interested to see how the auto industry mess plays out. The current state of the mess is the fault of both labor and management. Labor contracts are killing the industry, and management was stupid enough to enter into those contracts. They then continued to bet the farm on big SUV's. We'll see how this plays out, but I also believe the industry is exagerating the state of its condition in hopes of taking advantage of the current govt. handouts.

Actually, I think much of the optimization around the complex supply chain that is supported by the manufacturing companies will eventually favor local manufacturers over imports. We're starting to see companies actually consider the overall net landed cost of their suppliers vs. than just cost of goods because the added complexity and transportation actually make locally produced goods more competitive. When you add the green factor, it benefits the local suppliers even more. This will all balance out in the end and I think you're going to be surprised. We already have some very smart customers doing this and they are kicking butt. The results are undeniable. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the first ones to take this mainstream is Walmart.

But you're right, gov't handouts is not the answer.

[talltigeguy]

I think our industry will have the bargain shoppers with plenty to choose from or those buying or ordering brand new 09 boats.We are thinking positive and upbeat heading into our boat show season.

I have not seen the 09 boats come in that cheap for Tige or most others. My experience in the last 3 months of exhaustive searching is that the production numbers of 09 boats are much less, so supply and demand has balanced out for the new boats. That has maintained a higher price. There is still a great supply of new 07's so they are the best deals out there. Tige's upgrades hit at a time that accentuates this. Their 09 dealer cost is significantly more than the dealer 08 cost...9% more, right?

My company has decided to stop matching my 401K donations, which they used to do up to a 3% match. So I have a 3% paycut due to the hard times. That is sure better than losing my job, but the slowdown has translated into lost health care dollars as well. Our urgent care centers have seen a slow down. People who used to be seen for less serious illnesses are just giving it a little longer to see if things get better on their own, instead of going to the doctor. People are also slowing up on routine maintenance, so this has affected pretty well every segment of the economy to some degree.

[Billy Doyle]

[QUOTE=talltigeguy;256695]es Their 09 dealer cost is significantly more than the dealer 08 cost...9% more, right?

Keep in mind that the increase also includes additional features that are now standard, like Speed Set, stainless steel, etc... on the Tige's you are shopping for.


As for the economy in our area, I think we are in the middle of the scale and will have an easier time bouncing back than other areas of the country. When I say "in the middle" I base that on home sales and retail activity. Tn home sales are sluggish but in middle Tn it is a little worse because we are overbuilt in this area. I think our problem will be the lack of small business owners looking for what is becoming an overabundance of retail shopping centers being built. On the subject of Boat Dealerships, when we opened in Jan. there were 5 places to go shop for a Inboard. Today there are only 3. I think our situation here had very little to do w/ the economy and more to do with poor business management. We did just good enough to make it to next year but w/ the new Tige product line I think we have a good shot at a successful 2009.

[yllw20]

I really don't see the us economy as bad as "the media" scares people into. My wife and I both work and have decent jobs, by no means are we wealthy and we also dont live past our means. When we see new neighborhoods going up we always say how can there be this many people affording $300k+ houses and then have fancy cars and such....I kept saying they can't and the credit will catch them....well it has. When we bought our last house the first loan guy laughed at us because we only wanted x and we could get y amount. We didnt want to be house poor or have interest only home loans. As for the auto industry they are nuts too....look everybody cant afford a $30k car as entry level....it is the way our economy has been some can afford more and some less. I think we have not taught our kids properly and just charge it is okay now and we are max'd out as a country....some people are going to have to take a hit for their actions and some will prosper and move on. It is a hard lesson to learn, but a valuable one.
I think I need to apply for government bailout since I am supporting these others w/my taxes. Why dont they make my loans principle only since I have paid them on time!

[talltigeguy]

I really don't see the us economy as bad as "the media" scares people into. My wife and I both work and have decent jobs, by no means are we wealthy and we also dont live past our means. When we see new neighborhoods going up we always say how can there be this many people affording $300k+ houses and then have fancy cars and such....I kept saying they can't and the credit will catch them....well it has. When we bought our last house the first loan guy laughed at us because we only wanted x and we could get y amount. We didnt want to be house poor or have interest only home loans. As for the auto industry they are nuts too....look everybody cant afford a $30k car as entry level....it is the way our economy has been some can afford more and some less. I think we have not taught our kids properly and just charge it is okay now and we are max'd out as a country....some people are going to have to take a hit for their actions and some will prosper and move on. It is a hard lesson to learn, but a valuable one.
I think I need to apply for government bailout since I am supporting these others w/my taxes. Why dont they make my loans principle only since I have paid them on time!

AMEN!!!!!!!

[dogbert]

I really don't see the us economy as bad as "the media" scares people into. My wife and I both work and have decent jobs, by no means are we wealthy and we also dont live past our means. When we see new neighborhoods going up we always say how can there be this many people affording $300k+ houses and then have fancy cars and such....I kept saying they can't and the credit will catch them....well it has. When we bought our last house the first loan guy laughed at us because we only wanted x and we could get y amount. We didnt want to be house poor or have interest only home loans. As for the auto industry they are nuts too....look everybody cant afford a $30k car as entry level....it is the way our economy has been some can afford more and some less. I think we have not taught our kids properly and just charge it is okay now and we are max'd out as a country....some people are going to have to take a hit for their actions and some will prosper and move on. It is a hard lesson to learn, but a valuable one.
I think I need to apply for government bailout since I am supporting these others w/my taxes. Why dont they make my loans principle only since I have paid them on time!

Ok, so since when was life fair? Since you are responsible, you can clearly afford to pay for the mistakes of those who are not

[jake]

Hey Dom,

It me, your neighbor Tige wanabe. I got depressing news from my bank about my home value. It dropped 70K. Mostly due to all the forecloures. I agreed to pay $350 for a real home appraisal and hope for the best. BTW...I called deckadence and a guy by the name of Rich Halko came by my business. He dropped of a nice size sample. He'll be at booth #1 this weekend (boat show). He will do free full installs for a while. His number is 813-862-8902. I told him to stop by your shop, but he was hesitant. Didn't want to interfer with the other salesman. As far as the economy goes.....It's a buyers market! Business if good over here, Japan wants to secure another contract that will keep me going until the end of April. The bad news is it will take 3 weeks just to build the contract details. Have you sold anything lately? I'm hoping to fly out to Austin over Christmas and look at Tim White's RZ4, and maybe go tour Galvaston with my son. He loves the coast guard and has high hopes of joining someday. It would be a good idea to show him what his challenges will be. I was thing about buying some GM shares, what do you think?


Greg

[FIC]

Hope you and your son have a good time. I spoke to the same fellow you talked to he doesnt seem to know who visited me. As for GM I hope they survive other wise I dont know what type of engines will be in our boats.

[Joeprunc]

Is it partially the Media's fault??

OK so what do you think of this \/ \/

There are a lot of people getting laid off out there, I believe CA is at a record low since the great depression. And the media is doing a good job getting the word out to all of us. Thus resulting in those that have a job beginning to think of the future...and what if I'm next...
What does everyone do? They stop spending and begin saving. No one wants to get laid off and not have any capital to stay afloat. This scare of the economy keeps people from spending and buying which in turn affects the economy even more, starting with the small companies and eventually reaching the larger companies...obviously there are several other factors (ie housing, stock market, BUSH) which have injured the economy as well. But I just like to blame the media cause everyone needs a scapegoat.

[Joeprunc]

Here's a joke I heard the other day:

Whats the difference between a recession and a depression?



















A recession is when your neighbor gets laid off...
....a depression is when you get laid off.

[knelems]

Amen Joeprunc, I think CNN is killing everyone's business.Black friday is up over last year's sales and they still see the dark side to that.I guess gloom and doom gets higher ratings.

[da.bell]

There is a recession and from my understanding, the recession has been around since last December (2007). Currently, my office is seeing about 25% of the loan guarantee requests that we saw two years ago.

Yes, we processed about 5000 loans a month back in November 2006 and last month we only did 1200 loans.

[da.bell]

^^^^

The boat dealerships would fall under small business. My office approves guarantee loans for small business'