Boat Bubble. Should I sell?

[mwaite09]

And ammo, IF you can find it...

[talltigeguy]

Ute,
I don't think I saw your boat when I thumbed through the advertisements last night. Did you decide just to hold on?

[KoolAid]

This is one of those posts that I wish we could do like Reddit. "remind me in two years to follow up with this post". It's either going to pop or this is the new norm for boat for quite a while.

[BrentP]

This is one of those posts that I wish we could do like Reddit. "remind me in two years to follow up with this post". It's either going to pop or this is the new norm for boat for quite a while.

I think I hear “New Norm!” Being chanted from the Tige factory from here


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[Bamer]

$$$$$


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[MikeB313]

Every dealer I've talked with hasn't seen it really slowed down too much. Sales are still strong, but fall is when the deal people come out so those boats out there that are way overpriced are going to stay on the market.

[freeheel4life]

I hope it doesn't stay like this...

[UNSTUCK]

I hope it doesn't stay like this...or they'll never let me out of the shop long enough to go skiing this winter.

Finished it for you.

[freeheel4life]

Finished it for you.

Lol. Theres definitely that component. Its that time of the summer where I'm a bit grumpy BUT I genuinely hope it doesn't keep up like this because...

1) In a relatively short period of time this segment of boating has gone from 70k-120k price range to 100k-200k (and even more absurd when you throw Paragon/Pavati into the mix) and we all know those prices will just keep crawling up if this segment of the market stays hot. With these prices its bringing customers that expect the world, and I dont blame them. You could get a fully optioned C8 ZL1E, Challenger SRTHellcat, or fully loaded top level trim dually Ford/GM 1 ton for the price of what is now "entry level" boat $. Top end you could be buying Audi RS, G wagons, and Porsche GT3 RS.

The above are built by robots, are getting more QC, and have the infrastructure to support them on the backend. I dont feel the towboat industry is operating on the same level but charging the same prices. Which leads to upset customers...

2) Everyone and their brother have bought a boat and the reservoirs are packed with new boaters. Dont think we will see any new lakes being built so if this segment stays hot its just getting worse. Now manufacturers are moving into the 26-26.5 range of boats as well. Its just a recipe for disaster. We already have an entire county here in Idaho thats trying to kick wakeboats off the lake or put them on one section of the lake only. I saw recently in the news the university of Minnesota is doing a big study on wave effects on docks and beach erosion there. If you get on River Dave's Place, talk to lakeside owners, and even some people here, they are tired of wakes, tunes, and the general scene that goes along with our sport. Manufacturers churning out bigger boats and selling them at record rates aren't going to help any of it.

Those are just my opinions and like I said I'm grumpy. Have new boaters running aground and expecting same WEEK turn around on shaft, strut, rudder, and fiberglass repair. No appointments, no phone call, just pull in and drop it off then get upset when you tell them its going to take time to source parts, tear running gear off, pull engine/fuel tank for repairs, perform repairs and reassemble.

For example...here's a new ATX thats has already been thrashed. Shaft hard up against the log and he says "can't you just put a new prop on it"?? Smh

[freeheel4life]

Lol. Theres definitely that component. Its that time of the summer where I'm a bit grumpy BUT I genuinely hope it doesn't keep up like this because...

1) In a relatively short period of time this segment of boating has gone from 70k-120k price range to 100k-200k (and even more absurd when you throw Paragon/Pavati into the mix) and we all know those prices will just keep crawling up if this segment of the market stays hot. With these prices its bringing customers that expect the world, and I dont blame them. You could get a fully optioned C8 ZL1E, Challenger SRTHellcat, or fully loaded top level trim dually Ford/GM 1 ton for the price of what is now "entry level" boat $. Top end you could be buying Audi RS, G wagons, and Porsche GT3 RS.

The above are built by robots, are getting more QC, and have the infrastructure to support them on the backend. I dont feel the towboat industry is operating on the same level but charging the same prices. Which leads to upset customers...

2) Everyone and their brother have bought a boat and the reservoirs are packed with new boaters. Dont think we will see any new lakes being built so if this segment stays hot its just getting worse. Now manufacturers are moving into the 26-26.5 range of boats as well. Its just a recipe for disaster. We already have an entire county here in Idaho thats trying to kick wakeboats off the lake or put them on one section of the lake only. I saw recently in the news the university of Minnesota is doing a big study on wave effects on docks and beach erosion there. If you get on River Dave's Place, talk to lakeside owners, and even some people here, they are tired of wakes, tunes, and the general scene that goes along with our sport. Manufacturers churning out bigger boats and selling them at record rates aren't going to help any of it.

Those are just my opinions and like I said I'm grumpy. Have new boaters running aground and expecting same WEEK turn around on shaft, strut, rudder, and fiberglass repair. No appointments, no phone call, just pull in and drop it off then get upset when you tell them its going to take time to source parts, tear running gear off, pull engine/fuel tank for repairs, perform repairs and reassemble.

For example...here's a new ATX thats has already been thrashed. Shaft hard up against the log and he says "can't you just put a new prop on it"?? Smh

[D&P Powell]

...Everyone and their brother have bought a boat and the reservoirs are packed with new boaters. Dont think we will see any new lakes being built so if this segment stays hot its just getting worse.

Let me try and put your mind at ease. I agree with all of your concerns, and struggle with the skyrocketing costs (although I just spent more than I ever imagined, so I am contributing to that market). Having said that, your quote above is something I am not too worried about. The new boaters will disappear in a year or two. That's my prediction, and I stand by it. I know some will argue my logic, but I truly believe this will happen...

Right now everyone is buying because their kids are out of school (or attending virtually), out of sports, out of dance classes, gymnastics, the list goes on and on. As mentioned earlier in this thread, bike sales, rv sales, gun sales, and boat sales are through the roof. We all know those are pandemic driven purchases. Once we return to a closer version of reality and kids return to being kids, people will realize all of these purchases were impulsive and look to get rid of them. That doesn't even take into account the parents with concerts, plays, and vacations. Additionally, some of these people don't want to do all the work required to own a boat, and get upset when they realize how much it costs to have trained people like you repair them.

So the lakes will return to normal. I'd bet a beer on it (except with sandm - forget that guy, LOL). Life will slow down for you freeheel - until these boaters that have been standing on the sidelines start buying up these boats next year at great prices from private (desperate) owners. LOL

[freeheel4life]

Thanks Dave. Hopefully you are right. Im beginning to wonder tho....Our dealership was already experience high double digit growth year over year for the last 5-6 seasons so in my mind its a trend that was already there...its just been exacerbated by the pandemic.

I do agree it will be a buyers market and expect to see a lot of boats come back on consignment and others that were private sells getting warranty transfers done. With that I also wonder how many will offload their boats back into our own market to new buyers that didnt want to spend new boat $...effectively continuing to cram the reservoirs full of boats. Sure some will sell out of state, but how many, and how many buy from out of state and bring them here??

I can still find decent water in the end when its my turn to grab a pull and need quit my bi***in. We just need help. Still really only 2 of us in our shop. We are technically 4 but the other two are literally just parts changers and even that can be troublesome. They certainly can't diagnose their way out of a paper bag, which is a huge part of the job with surf systems, lights, screens, stereos, engine/drive train, trailer, etc

[Bamer]

For what it’s worth, I’ve already seen a slow down at my ramp the past 2 weeks. A little bit of heat, kid activities, and getting stressed at each trip to the lake is my guess as to the slow down. Definitely will be some nice rigs for sale, but not sure about getting good deals. Most Owners will be upside down n their loans.....

Interesting enough though, my lake is only 10 maybe 20% tow boats.. rest are toons, center consoles, bass, runabout, etc...


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[talltigeguy]

I look at it as primarily a transfer of money from the vacation industry (flights, cruises, hotels) to the outdoor recreation industries. Those other things will come back and people will be wondering what they are going to do with the money pit they took care of all summer. It has taken longer than I thought it would actually, which is especially painful since I am boatless right now. I have noticed a lot of the boats I am looking at are not going off the market, so those that actually want to sell will have to drop prices soon.

[sandm]

lots of thoughts here and wish my crystal ball still worked. free's point about year over year sales increases are partially covid related but an ongoing trend there. I think covid blew markets up that might not have been as hot as boise is but that area has continued to see increases from my first pull behind a wakeboat in '07. boise has been on almost every survey of one of the best places to live in the US for the last 15 years and is usually in the top3 so their pains are greater than, say las vegas where the city continues to be californized but not many moving here are buying boats.
sorry free but as long as idaho continues to open the doors to people moving there, the market is going to get worse and worse. they need to pave the road to 'rock and put in an easy commute to anderson or peak is going to become one huge sandbar you can hop from boat to boat to boat...... if you've never been there, it is truly a place you visit and never want to leave. over my 40+ years of living there I heard it over and over and over.

I'm going to take dave's bet on a beer that prestige shows another double digit sales year next year. based on total units sold, NOT new boats as used is going to be a bigger market next year. and that means more work for the shop detailing and fixing what others neglected.
sorry free to be the debbie downer in this but Boise is a unique place to live.